Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
